Tactical voting is dead in Eastleigh and here is why

At the previous General Election, Brexit dominated the voting. This same election killed tactical voting in Eastleigh. Here is why.

Facts:

⦁ At GE19, the Conservatives secured more votes than all other parties combined*

⦁ In Eastleigh, 75 people in 100 confirmed they would have voted Labour had Brexit been delivered**

⦁ Eastleigh Labour maintained their base vote and lost their tactical Brexit voters to Conservatives and Liberal Democrats***

⦁ The tactical vote like all recent elections in Eastleigh has not worked*

18 months ago, we reviewed the concept of tactical voting. We provided evidence that tactical voting is detrimental to Eastleigh. To review again why tactical voting is dead in Eastleigh, we have looked deeper and with the latest information. We list the reasons here:

⦁ Liberal Democrats are conservative – they stealth tax us, spend millions on consultants’ fees (e.g. parking charges outside your home)+

⦁ Liberal Democrats work with Conservatives – coalition government showed this with austerity (closure of Eastleigh Police station, Environment Agency, SureStart centres)

⦁ Liberal Democrats ‘need’ the tactical vote message to remain relevant in Eastleigh*

It is true that there are small locations which traditionally do not give Labour their vote. We see this in places like Hamble, West End and Netley. However, when you analyse General Election sampling, Eastleigh has a strong Labour vote*.

In Eastleigh Local Elections, Labour is the only challenger to the Liberal Democrats. We know that from our analysis below. Conservatives will not be elected in Eastleigh.

The failure of tactical voting

At GE17, our Labour support continued to surge because tactical voting is failing. At GE19, we can see the gains made (7%) return to a tactical vote on the grounds of Brexit.*** Local elections in 2021, if turnout is good, will see the continued decline of the Liberal Democrats in Eastleigh. The choice will be Liberal Democrat or Eastleigh Labour, based on trends, with the Conservatives likely to pick up the Liberal Democrat protest vote because of their obsession with Brexit.

If we take in to account the latest, most detailed polling data produced by The Times, it highlights that if we all went to vote, the Liberal Democrats would drop off astronomically in Eastleigh after their continued national collapse.

There remains a long, hard fight for Eastleigh Labour party to beat the Tories but we know that we continue to make progress.


Our message is this:

The Liberal Democrats have sold you tactical voting, but have taken services from you and taxed you for the pleasure+

The Conservatives will not be elected in Eastleigh if Labour voters go to the polls

The local elections will be a chance to elect local people where you live. Please vote Labour to ensure that happens


Together, we will make Eastleigh better.


Register to postal vote: https://www.eastleigh.gov.uk/media/3250/postal-vote-application-form.pdf
Keep up-to-date: https://eastleighlabour.co.uk/#newsletter
Contact us: hello@eastleighlabour.co.uk

References
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000685#election2017-logo *
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000685 **
https://eastleighlabour.co.uk/2019/12/eastleigh-please-dont-tactical-vote/ **
https://www.eastleigh.gov.uk/council/elections-and-voting/elections/borough-council-elections * https://labourbusiness.org/publications/general-election-2019-labour-business-report-to-labour-togethers-review/
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/12/23/their-own-words-why-voters-abandoned-labour ***
https://eastleighlabour.co.uk/2020/12/millions-spent-by-ebc-on-consultants/ +
https://eastleighlabour.co.uk/2020/06/lib-dem-lies-and-spin-on-local-plan/ +